Pineville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

571
FXUS64 KLCH 180535
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1135 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Cool but not too cold rain is falling across interior SETX and
CenLA this afternoon with showers expected to taper out of the
area over the evening and overnight hours. Storms nor heavy rain
are expected.

The weekend is expected to be dry weather wise, however it will
become cold with a much colder airmass moving into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

New day, same forecast uncertainties. Confidence remains high that
temperatures will nosedive below seasonal norms from Sunday night
through midweek. However, confidence in winter weather amounts and
locations is about as low as the single digit wind chills in my
forecast.

Not much has changed with the setup: an upper level trough is
expected to stretch from the Canadian provinces north of the Great
Lakes all the way to the Gulf Coast. At the surface, a high
pressure will slide south from the Northern Plains, tightening the
pressure gradient across the region.

As mentioned before, confidence in low temperatures is rock solid.
Daytime highs from Monday to Wednesday will barely scrape the 40s.
On Tuesday, theyll struggle to even thaw above freezing.
Overnight lows? Theyll nosedive into the 20s, with Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning temps cruelly dropping into the teens.
Combine that with northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph, and wind chill
values will feel like 10 to 20F, with single digit wind chills
possible.

On the flip side, confidence in precipitation amounts is about as
stable as a toddler on an ice rink. While theres been some
improvement in confidence of the wintry precipitation type (more
of the flaky type, less of the icey rain type), measurable amounts
remain iffy. Over the last 24h, model guidance has gotten in
better agreement as to the evolution of a low level trough over
the BoC / GoM. This feature will funnel moisture into the area
where subfreezing temps are just waiting to play with it.

Looking at forecast soundings for Tuesday morning, T and Td will
be snuggled together and below freezing throughout the vertical
profile. This supports the shift from freezing rain to snow
probabilities. Current odds favor measurable snowfall at 50-75%,
an uptick from previous forecasts. Freezing rain probabilities?
Theyre hanging out in the 0-25% range.

Beyond that, the next shortwave moving through late in the week
might bring another round of precipitation, though the frozen
variety seems unlikely for now. Temperatures will rise heading
into Thursday, reducing freezing rain and snow probabilities. So,
whats on tap? A miserably cold rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Other than sfc obs showing that low clouds have been largely
slow to develop, no changes to previous TAF thinking (below)...

Sfc obs indicate low clouds continuing to increase across the
forecast area with KLCH already MVFR...expect the remaining
terminals to follow suit over the next few hours, with MVFR
ceilings then expected to prevail through the night. Elevated srly
winds will gradually shift wrly into Saturday morning, at which
time drier air is progged to infiltrate the region, dissipating
the ceilings and allowing VFR conditions to prevail the remainder
of the forecast period. Stronger nwrly flow is expected later
Saturday with the passage of a strong cold front.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

A very cold air mass will move in behind this cold front making
for turbulent conditions with mixing of strong winds down to the
surface. Therefore, small craft advisories look likely from Sunday
into next week, with the chance for Gale Warnings during a part of
that period depending on how strong and the track of a Gulf low
late Monday into Tuesday.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  53  63  32  43 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  57  67  36  46 /  20   0   0   0
LFT  58  71  38  46 /  20  10   0   0
BPT  57  67  34  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...25